The Eagles like to run a lot of Cover-1 coverage, and Mahomes destroys Cover-1 (first in EPA/Dropback per TruMedia). As for betting over, both offenses match up well with the opposing defense. I imagine his ATS record as 2.5 favorite or better is quite good, and I also favor the Chiefs by just over a field goal here. As for the spread bet, I like to live by a general rule of thumb: when Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than a field goal, it’s an auto-bet. I’m reducing risk on the over because I don’t want to expose myself too much on one game. Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs over 45.5 (-110) (to win 0.5 units) Worst line to bet: Over 46.5 (-115) Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110) vs. My only worry is Stafford and his thumb injury, as that could slow things down, but I’m confident he’s close enough to 100 percent that he can beat up on Seattle’s zone defense. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford is a top 5 quarterback against zone coverage and Cover-3, which Seattle happens to run both at a top 3 rate. Geno Smith struggles against man defense, while the Rams run zone defense at the fifth-highest rate in the league. I think both quarterbacks could feast in this one. Worst line to bet: Jaguars -6.5 (-115) Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams over 46 (-110) Either way, getting Trevor Lawrence at home against a rookie quarterback excites me. I’m not sure whether that’s because of Jacksonville’s performance last week or overrating Levis’ first few games as a starter. I think the market has adjusted a little too much here. Yes, Jacksonville is coming off a horrible display of football against the 49ers, but the Titans are nowhere near San Francisco. Jacksonville has a Top-10 rush defense, and relying on Will Levis’ arm on the road isn’t a recipe for success.

Worst line to bet: Under 44 (-110) Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-110) vs. Herbert can turn into Superman at any moment but this matchup for the Packers defense is enough for me to think this game could end up in the low 40s. You can guess what the Packers defense base defense is…that’s right, Cover-3. Justin Herbert, for some reason unknown to me, has struggled against Cover-3 this season. As always, good luck to us! NFL Week 11 Best Bets Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers under 44 (-110)īe sure to shop around here as a book or two are hanging 44.5, but I still like this bet at 44 and will grade at this price. I’m not sure if I will add to this later in the week, but you never know how injury reports will look in the second half of the NFL season, so stay tuned. Six plays this week, so it is a decent size card.

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